Supplying Ukraine with advanced weapons- the case and the possible effects

by Constantine Kyprios, military analyst and EastMed SSInstitute contributor

 

As the war between Ukraine and Russia continues towards its end, the case for Kiev to be supplied with more weapons, especially, advanced is placed forward.  So, what are the parameters and what are the effects of such a decision.   As it seems the war is keep going on, the necessary steps must be taken. What are thοse steps? Those that are necessary to be taken as for the appropriate outcome to be achieved if that is desired. So, the necessary decision should take place and the appropriate military and financial aid must be given.  So, with the negotiations having failed the necessary procedures should take place.  The difference in the military comparison is great and as such for Ukraine to win the war, it is needed to acquire the necessary weapons to win the military confrontation with Russia.  So far, a great number of weapon systems have been sent to Ukraine to succeed in its military confrontation with Russia. Those include an array of weapons that include MLRS with PrSM and ATACMS.  Those missiles can be used in order to strike strategic targets. The Precision Strike Missile with a range of 500 kilometers, provides increased missile range with greater standoff capabilities that improve crew and launcher survivability.  It has an open systems architecture; it is modular and easily adaptable and has an IM energetic payload while it is compatible with MLRS and HIMARS.  It has an increased range and lethality with capability of Fires in Multi Domain Operations with an Inertial Navigation System with Global Positioning System guidance an insensitive munition propulsion system and IM energetic payload and is tailored to defeat a broad range of targets. As such it maintaining dominance in operational environments. The missile is fired at multiple targets and it includes a rotary wing platform hypersonic speed with high accuracy. It uses non insensitive munitions as and cluster munitions and an all-weather target engagements capability with extended range.  A very specific weapon designed to execute fires in Multi Domain Operations. It includes Inertial Navigation System with Global Positioning system guidance.  The most important issue is that PrSM works seamlessly with the Army’s tracked M270A2 Launcher as and the HIMARS system.  The missile gives capabilities in engaged targets at ranges of over 500 kilometers[1],

The ATACMS also is a system of high capability that has been created in order to strike in great depths as to achieve maximum damage to strategic targets. It can be used as a carrier of various weapons that include Block 1 950 M74 Bomblets, Block 1A 300 M74 bomblets, WDU 18/B HE blast/ fragmentation unitary warhead or 247 kg WDU 40/B HE blasts penetration Block2 – 13 BAT submunitions[2]. MGM. It is an area target weapon system with a unitary warhead. It GPS aided guidance with 300 M74 bomblets with a long-range precision strike capabilities that includes enemy air defenses command and control centers logistics facilities and troops concentrations.  It includes rang, lethality and technical sophistication as and fulfilling specific objectives. ATACMS with a capability of hitting targets up to 300 kilometers, it carries two different types of warheads. It can deliver surgical strikes on enemy control posts, ammunition, and fuel storage depots. It has destroyed up to 30 command stations and ammunition storage facilities.  It can take rockets M26 that carries 644 DPCIM M77 submunitions with range of 15 to 32 kilometers, M 26A1 ER rockets with 518 M85submunitions and range 15-45 kilometers, M26A2 ER rockets with 518 M77 submunitions with range 15-45 kilometers and AT2 Germans M26 variant with 28 AT2 anti tanks mines and range of 15 to 38 kilometers, and the GLSDB that carrying SDB[3]. GMLRS with a range of 84 kilometers. It also includes high radiation missiles (HAR6MS) that it can be used against radars SCALP/Storm that have a range of about 155 miles[4].

The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb GLSDB with a range of up to 150 kilometers. That is launched by air and it combines the SDB with the M26 rocket, however it also able to be launched by ground-based missile systems such as the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System and the M142 HIMARS.  Its first use has been deployed in Ukraine in 2024.  The GLSDB carries a smaller warhead with the rocket launched SDB to be launched to altitude and glide on a selected trajectory.  The GLSDB has a 360 degree for high and low angles of attack flying around terrain to hit targets on the back mountain or cycling back around to a target behind the launch vehicle. The weapon system has a range of 150 kilometers and can hit target of 70 kilometers; the weapon can be set to detonate above the ground with a delay for deep penetration[5].  The GLSDB has a distance of 100 kilometers and the bomb has a semi active laser (SAL) seeker as to track and engage targets.  The SDB is another weapon that has a circular error probable (CEP) with precision of 1 meter CEP with differential GPS that has an offset prior to weapon release[6].

Other systems that have been delivered to the Ukrainian military is the Copperhead artillery it is a guided artillery shell with a laser signal on board a guidance system and steering vanes that maneuver the projectile to the target it has a sufficient time to maneuver as to hit the target and has sufficient visibility to ensure that the target is acquired to the projectile. The M982 Excalibur[7] is a 155 mm extended range guided artillery shell it is also a GPS and inertial guided munition capable of being used in close support situations with 75-150 meters of friendly troops. It comes in various versions that include semi active laser targeting capability, extended range guided projectiles in its naval version and with Shaped Trajectory in the version EST, It has a range of 40 kilometers. It is used by military commanders as a precision weapon Both weapons are fired from artillery

As such the Ukrainian government has decided to request the acquisition of Tomahawk missiles in order to acquire strategic advantage as to gain the leverage over Russia. There is a fundamental difference regarding the deliverance of Tomahawk missiles in regards to the other weapons. The Tomahawk missiles are a strategic weapon of greater potentiality and capabilities than the other weapons. The missile has great potentiality that include a variety of warheads such as explosives, submunitions and bunker busters. It uses GPS inertial navigation and terrain contour matching[8]. Of even greatest importance is the TERCOM – Terrain Contour Matching, digital representation of an of terrain mapped on digital elevation data or stereo imagery. It also uses DSMAC – Digital Scene Matching Area Correlation, a digitalized image of an area as mapped and then inserted into a TLAM mission.

It comes in a variety of varieties, on which what are of interest to be supplied in Ukraine are the BGM 109C Tomahawk Land attack missile conventional with a unitary warhead that can strike strategic facilities, notably buildings and, the BGM-109D Tomahawk Land Attack Missile-Dispenser with submunitions dispenser that carried 166 BLU/B Combined Effects Bomblet that can be used against multiple targets and in respect to the range of the weapon systems, logistics trains concentrations and supply depots[9]. Aka the TLAM-D contains 166 sub-munitions in 24 canisters. What is also of great advantage of those missiles are the great range of the weapon systems Those striking hard deep in the enemy strategic logistic capabilities.  Further advantages of the Tomahawk missile are the network centric warfare capabilities that use data from multiple sensors such as aircraft, UAVS, satellites, foot soldiers, tanks and ships as to be directed against its target. That is from 700 miles to 1350 miles. It has a sophisticated guidance technologies and travels at high subsonic speed of 550 miles per hour. The missile has a 1000 lb warhead and can be reprogrammed during flight to switch targets up until the last moment. It fly a high subsonic speed at low altitudes that make it hard to be detected by ground radars.  The missiles have a speed of about 550 miles per hour with the capacity of twists and turns like a radar and simultaneously skimming over the land at 100 feet to 300 feet that give the capacity to evade enemy air defenses, as the Russian air defense despite less advance than the Western is still quite capable with many systems at low level and short range as the Tor and high and long range as the S 300/400.   As such the weapons are classified as a strategic weapon and falls in this category. To be delivered in Ukraine it will provide her with strategic capabilities that would allow her to strike deep in the Russian territory. As Russia is an immense country were most of its supply and strategic assets lay deep in its territory, Tomahawk cruise missile will deliver a new dimension in the Ukrainian war effort. It will most certainly give the Ukrainian war effort the capacity to strike at the key points of the Russian effort and it will certainly place great strains in the Russian drive in Ukraine[10].

However, the delivery of those weapon systems will further increase the tension between the Western allies and Russia. As such the escalation between the Russia and NATO can be further increased and result to a greater Cold War.  Although a Russian summer offensive near the eastern town of Pokrovsk did make rapid advances just north of the town and Russia has recently made progress to the east of nearby Kostyantynivka, analysts say it would take “several years” for it to complete its objective in the region. One also matter is the limited number of missiles in the US arsenal That is only 4000 missiles of the Block IV and Block V editions. The matter is that those weapons can use the gaps of the Russian air defense and emphasized in greater number of strategic strikes in the Russian war machine. The missiles are built to travel high subsonic, speeds and low height as to dodge radars in order to provide Ukraine with a lot more capability

It can inflict substantial damage on strategic targets such as the Shahed drone factory in Tatarstan. They can be considered as massive firepower as to target key Russian infostructure deep inside Russia such as to attack transport chock points and other assets including oil depots, marshalling yards, convoys, and factories[11].

So the acquisition of tomahawk missiles from Ukraine will change the dimension of warfare all around. It will provide Ukraine with strategic capabilities unmatched to other nations than USA, France and Britain and the capacity to strike deep in Russian territory. It will most certainly give the capability to the Ukrainian armed forces to strike in strategic targets and neutralize strategic assets that are used to supports the Russian war effort and as such to withheld her and place restrain to it. However, it will change over all the dimension of the war and it will provide Ukraine with those strategic capabilities that will provoke Russia to escalate the war. As such It will only most certainly will undermine any peace solution What the Russian response might be, is not certain it will defently going to be in the strategic dimension and it will be certainly brutal against Ukraine. However, in any case will only enforce the Cold War between Russia and the West. As such any decision to deliver those weapons to Ukraine must be taken according to the decisions of the Western allies and Ukraine in how to proceed the waw and their policy towards Russia and to which level have decided to escalate or find a solution to the war.

 

 

[1] Darrell AmesJuly 6, 2025 Precision Strike Missile Increment 1 Achieves Milestone C Approvalhttps://www.army.mil/article/286878/precision_strike_missile_increment_1_achieves_milestone_c_approval

[2] April 23, 2024 MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). https://www.army-technology.com/projects/mlrs/

[3] M270 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System), US The M270 MLRS is a self-propelled, rocket artillery system manufactured by Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control

[4] Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), https://www.army-technology.com/projects/small-diameter-bomb-glsdb/

[5] https://news.sky.com/story/could-tomahawks-be-game-changer-for-ukraine-and-could-they-strike-moscow-13450521  Could Tomahawk missiles be a game-changer for Ukraine and could they strike Moscow Friday 17 October 2025 03:28, UK

[6] https://news.sky.com/story/could-tomahawks-be-game-changer-for-ukraine-and-could-they-strike-moscow-13450521  Could Tomahawk missiles be a game-changer for Ukraine and could they strike Moscow Friday 17 October 2025 03:28, UK

[7] Excalibur – Tell the round where to go – and it goes there. https://www.baesystems.com/en/product/excalibur–tell-the-round-where-to-go-ndash-and-it-goes-ther

[8]  Jake Epstein What to know about the Tomahawk cruise missiles Trump says he asked Putin about sending to Ukraine  https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-know-tomahawk-cruise-missiles-trump-may-send-ukraine-2025-10

 

[9]seaforce online UGM / BGM / RGM-109 Tomahawk  https://www.seaforces.org/wpnsys/SURFACE/BGM-109-Tomahawk.htm

[10] Shola Lawa  lWhy are US Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine a ‘red line’ for Russia? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/30/why-are-us-tomahawk-missiles-for-ukraine-a-red-line-for-russia

[11] Natasha Bertrand  Zachary Cohen  Pentagon cleared giving Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles, leaving final decision to Trump, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/31/politics/pentagon-tomahawks-trump-ukraine

No Comments Yet

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.