Αικατερίνη Κορίννα
Εξαιρετικά σημαντικό άρθρο του Seth Frantzman . 
Όταν υπογράφτηκε η Συνθήκη μεταξύ Ισραήλ και Λιβανου , όλοι η σχεδόν όλοι την υποδέχτηκαν με χειροκροτήματα . Πάμπολοι δε , εντός και εκτός Κύπρου και Ελλαδας « ονειρευοντουσαν» κάτι παρόμοιο και για τις εδώ περιοχές . Για να γίνουμε …. μια θάλασσα ειρήνης .
Όταν υπογράφτηκε η Συνθήκη μεταξύ Ισραήλ και Λιβανου , όλοι η σχεδόν όλοι την υποδέχτηκαν με χειροκροτήματα . Πάμπολοι δε , εντός και εκτός Κύπρου και Ελλαδας « ονειρευοντουσαν» κάτι παρόμοιο και για τις εδώ περιοχές . Για να γίνουμε …. μια θάλασσα ειρήνης 
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Οι πυραυλικές επιθέσεις εναντίον του Ισραήλ που λαμβάνουν χώρα τις στο τελευταίες ημέρες και που προέρχονται από τον Λίβανο , όπως και η αναμενόμενη αντεπίθεση από το Ισραήλ , αποδεικνύουν περίτρανα πτι δεν αρκεί μια κατά πολύ « κατευθυνόμενη» συμφωνία για να λυθούν προστριβές και προβλήματα δεκαετιών … πολύ περισσότερο αιώνων .( όπως είχε πει χαρακτηριστικά πρώην αμερικανός διπλωμάτης της κυβέρνησης Ομπάμα που είχε επιχειρήσει και αυτός χωρίς επιτυχία για την ίδια συμφωνία : νομίζαμε είπε , ότι συμφωνία Ισραήλ – Λιβανου , είναι κάτι σαν ΗΠΑ – Καναδάς . Λοιπόν δεν είναι !!).
Ακολουθεί το άρθρο που δημοσιεύεται στην Jerusalem Post και το δημοσιεύω στα αγγλικά .
Israel-Lebanon tensions shows limitation of gas deal – analysis
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN Published: APRIL 7, 2023 11:24
The Lebanon rockets seem to show the limitation of the deal signed last year in which peace, security and stability were supposed to be some of the benefits.
The rocket attacks from Lebanon on Thursday and the Israeli response illustrate that the maritime deal signed with Lebanon last year has not reduced the chance of conflict.
This appears to show the limitation of the deal signed last year in which peace, security and stability were supposed to be some of the benefits, as well as the supposed deterrence of Hezbollah.
It appears terrorist groups, such as Hamas, are able to operate openly in areas used by Hezbollah.
The Israel-Lebanon maritime border deal
The maritime deal was agreed to by Israel and Lebanon late last year, on the eve of the Israeli elections. It came in the wake of more than a year of talks, supported by the US. It also came amid Hezbollah threats to Israeli gas and energy exploration off the coast.
At the time of the deal in late October, the EU put out a statement. “The EU congratulates Israel and Lebanon on this landmark achievement and commends the role of the US in facilitating negotiations. This historic agreement will contribute to the stability and prosperity of the two neighbors as well as to that of the wider region.”
The talks go back more than two years. Since they began, there has been an increase in attacks from Lebanon.
During the May 2021conflict between Israel and Hamas, there were rocket attacks from Lebanon. In addition in July 2022, Hezbollah used drones to target a gas rig off the coast. On the eve of the deal in October 2022, Hezbollah also appeared to threaten conflict with Israel.
On the eve of the deal, Israel had to prepare for escalation in the North in early October 2022. At the time, Israel was told that tensions were rising in the North because the deal negotiations were at risk.
If Israel didn’t do the deal, then there could be conflict.
This was an odd preview of worse to come since a deal to achieve “stability” seemed to be creating a potential for conflict.
The deal didn’t address the continued use of southern Lebanon by terrorist groups and the stockpiling of weapons.
In fact, just weeks after the deal, on December 14, Hezbollah murdered a UN Irish peacekeeper in southern Lebanon. In late January 2023, reports said that Qatar was joining the consortium searching for gas off the coast of Lebanon.
Qatar’s role appeared interesting because Doha has also been involved in cash payments to Gaza over the years.
Qatar has a sort of Janus-face in regard to Israel. On the one hand, it has hosted Hamas in the past and Al-Jazeera in Arabic has often spread extremist rhetoric, whereas in English Qatar has tended to be more moderate and the country is a key strategic ally of the US. Qatar hosted the Taliban and also became a closer ally of the US. It has a way of seeming to profit off hosting extremist groups and working more closely with the West.
It’s unclear how that will work out in Lebanon. France24 said that Lebanon “announced that Qatar had entered a consortium to explore for offshore gas in waters near Israel, following a historic border deal last year between the two foes.”
In a statement at the time of the deal, then-Israeli prime minister Yair Lapid said that the draft agreement met all Israel’s security, economic and legal demands.
He said, “This is a historic achievement that will strengthen Israel’s security, and bring in billions to Israel’s economy and ensure stability on the northern border.”
There was also a theory that the agreement would lead to the development of the Qana gas field off Lebanon’s coast and this could weaken Lebanon’s dependency on Iran.
At the time Israel’s then-defense minister Benny Gantz also said in mid-October 2022 that “the maritime border agreement will act as a deterrent” and “has the potential to reduce Iranian influence on Lebanon.”
The UN Security Council praised the deal last year. “The members of the Security Council commended the announcements that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to end their dispute over their maritime boundary and delineate it permanently. This is a major step, which will contribute to the stability, the security, and the prosperity of the region. It will benefit both countries and their people and will allow both parties to benefit equitably from energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean.”
US Senator Jacky Rosen of Nevada put out a statement on October 27, 2022, regarding the deal. The statement reflects the general view at high levels in the US that the deal was supposed to bring security and stability.
“I congratulate Israel and Lebanon for signing this agreement and the Biden Administration for their diplomatic efforts facilitating it,” said Rosen. “The US-brokered deal between Israel and Lebanon will end a decades-long maritime dispute, strengthen Israel’s security, lower the risk of war, and contribute to regional stability and economic success.
American global leadership and diplomacy can help bring about a more peaceful world, from facilitating new partnerships for Israel in the Middle East to promoting a two-state solution with the Palestinians. As the historic Abraham Accords have demonstrated, cooperation with Israel benefits the entire region.”
The US Institute of Peace also hosted a discussion about the deal. The discussion included experts such as USIP’s Robert Barron, Mona Yacoubian and Hesham Youssef to “unpack the agreement, its significance for Lebanon and Israel and the implications for peace and stability in the region.”
Yacoubian predicted, “the deal will help to de-escalate tensions between Lebanon and Israel, reducing the prospects for conflict between the two countries in the near term.”
However!!!!!!!!
The rocket attacks from Lebanon on Thursday and the Israeli response illustrate that the maritime deal signed with Lebanon last year has not
reduced the chance of conflict.
This appears to show the limitation of the deal signed last year in which peace, security and stability were supposed to be some of the benefits, as well as the supposed deterrence of Hezbollah.
The limitations of the maritime deal are now clear.
The deal did not prevent Hamas or other terrorist groups from openly moving rockets during the day to areas near Tyre to shoot at Israel.
Hezbollah doesn’t appear deterred, since it controls the area where rockets were fired from. In addition, Hamas leaders openly fly into Beirut and meet with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and plotted the attacks this week during Passover.
The statements about how the deal brought security, stability, peace and deterrence now may need to be revisited in light of the recent exchanges in the North.
The question also relates to what will happen in the future as gas exploration continues.
While this round of clashes included rocket fire from Lebanon in broad daylight targeting Israel during the Passover holiday, it’s not clear what else the terror groups may be up to in Lebanon.
It’s also not clear if those who backed the deal and said it would include security will revisit this question and pressure Lebanon regarding its hosting of extremist groups.
and said it would include security will revisit this question and pressure Lebanon regarding its hosting of extremist groups.Οι αναλογίες και οι ομοιότητες μεταξύ αυτων που έγιναν και γίνονται στο Ισραήλ με τις επιθέσεις από τον Λίβανο και μάλιστα πάνω στο εβραϊκό Pesach ,και με αυτά που γίνονται και ίσως κάποιοι θέλουν να γίνουν και στις δικές μας περιοχές ….. είναι εξόφθαλμες
Και ο νοών … νοείτο !!!
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