The Kurdish Quest for Independence: A New Ally for U.S. and Israeli Interests?

 Sherzad MamSani, EastMed Contributor

The prospect of establishing an independent Kurdistan raises complex questions about its potential impact on U.S. and Israeli interests in the Middle East.

The Kurds have historically been significant players in regional dynamics, often aligning with Western interests, yet the implications of their independence are multifaceted.

Kurdish Contributions to U.S. Interests

• 2003 Iraq Invasion: During the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, Kurdish forces, particularly the Peshmerga, collaborated with American troops to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime. Their intimate knowledge of the terrain and effective combat strategies were instrumental in the campaign’s success.

• Fight Against ISIS (2014-2020): Kurdish forces, notably the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Iraqi Peshmerga, played a pivotal role in combating ISIS. Their efforts were crucial in reclaiming territories and dismantling the caliphate, aligning with U.S. objectives to eradicate extremist threats in the region. Turkey’s Contrasting Actions

• Stance During 2003 Iraq Invasion: Turkey, a NATO member, notably denied the U.S. permission to use its territory for launching operations into Iraq, complicating the invasion strategy.

• Alleged Support for Extremist Groups: Reports have surfaced accusing Turkey of providing support to groups like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria and Iraq, raising concerns about its commitment to counterterrorism efforts.

• Relations with Anti-Israel Entities: Turkey has been reported to maintain relations with groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, which are adversarial to Israel. This includes hosting Hamas officials and providing various forms of support.

Demographic Changes in Afrin Following Turkey’s military operations in Afrin, northern Syria, there have been reports of demographic engineering. Settlements have been established to house displaced Syrian Arabs and Palestinians, allegedly altering the region’s ethnic composition.

Qatar has been reported to fund these settlement projects. Iranian-Backed Militias’ Actions Against Kurds In October 2017, Iranian-backed militias, including the Popular Mobilization Forces, launched offensives against Kurdish-held territories in Iraq, notably seizing the city of Kirkuk. This aggression strained U.S. relations, as American-supplied military equipment was reportedly used in these operations.

Implications for U.S. and Israeli Interests

• Strategic Ally: An independent Kurdistan could serve as a secular, democratic ally for the U.S. and Israel in a predominantly volatile region, potentially enhancing strategic depth and intelligence-sharing capabilities.

• Regional Stability: However, Kurdish independence might exacerbate tensions with neighboring countries like Turkey and Iran, both of which have significant Kurdish populations and oppose secessionist movements. This could lead to regional instability, complicating U.S. and Israeli foreign policy objectives.

• Energy Resources: Kurdish regions, particularly in Iraq, are rich in oil reserves. An independent Kurdistan could offer alternative energy partnerships for the U.S. and Israel, potentially reducing reliance on other Middle Eastern oil sources. The establishment of an independent Kurdistan has the potential to serve as a model for inclusive governance and protecting minority rights, as evidenced by the experiences of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). However, its ability to safeguard America’s interests in the region depends on multiple factors, including its commitment to pluralism, its geopolitical strategies, and its relationships with neighboring states and global powers.

Lessons from the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq

1. Inclusivity and Minority Rights:

• The KRG has established a relatively stable and inclusive governance model in Iraq, granting representation and rights to ethnic and religious minorities such as Assyrians, Turkmen, Yazidis, and Christians.

• The constitution of the Kurdistan Region enshrines equal rights for all citizens, regardless of ethnicity or religion, creating a precedent for pluralistic governance.

2. Economic and Social Development:

• The KRG has leveraged its oil resources to foster economic development, attracting foreign investment and creating a relatively prosperous region despite regional instability. • It has invested in infrastructure, education, and health, offering a higher standard of living compared to other parts of Iraq.

3. Collaboration with the U.S.:

• The KRG has been a steadfast ally of the U.S., particularly in the fight against ISIS, where Peshmerga forces played a crucial role in dismantling the terror group.

• The KRG’s cooperation with international actors, including the U.S., demonstrates its potential to align with Western interests in the region. The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES)

1. Governance Model:

• The AANES, commonly referred to as Rojava, has implemented a unique system of governance based on grassroots democracy, gender equality, and ethnic pluralism.

• It has provided a framework for coexistence among Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, Armenians, and other groups in northern Syria.

2. Counterterrorism Partner:

• The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the military arm of the AANES, has been a crucial U.S. partner in the fight against ISIS, often carrying the brunt of ground operations.

• Their efforts have been instrumental in stabilizing northern Syria and preventing the resurgence of extremist groups.

3. Challenges from Regional Powers:

• The AANES faces ongoing threats from Turkey, which views its existence as a security risk due to its association with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

• This regional opposition poses challenges to its sustainability and its ability to act independently of foreign influence.

Potential for an Independent Kurdistan

1. Protecting Rights:

• An independent Kurdistan could replicate the inclusive policies of the KRG and AANES, offering a safe haven for minorities and fostering coexistence in a region marked by sectarianism and ethnic strife.

• Its commitment to democratic principles and human rights could set an example for other states in the Middle East.

2. U.S. Interests:

• Kurdistan’s alignment with U.S. goals, such as combating extremism, securing energy resources, and countering the influence of hostile actors like Iran and Turkey, positions it as a valuable partner.

• Its pro-Western stance and willingness to collaborate with the U.S. and Israel make it a strategic asset in a volatile region.

3. Challenges:

• Regional opposition from Turkey, Iran, and Iraq could limit the feasibility of establishing an independent Kurdistan and its ability to operate as a stable entity.

• The absence of international recognition and the potential for economic and military isolation could undermine its effectiveness.

The experiences of the KRG and AANES demonstrate that Kurdish governance can successfully protect the rights of diverse communities and align with U.S. interests. However, the establishment of an independent Kurdistan would require significant international support and careful navigation of regional politics. If successful, it could emerge as a bastion of democracy and stability in the Middle East, furthering American strategic objectives and setting a new standard for governance in the region. While the Kurds have demonstrated alignment with U.S. and Israeli interests through military collaboration and shared adversaries, the establishment of an independent Kurdistan presents a complex scenario. It offers potential strategic advantages but also poses significant geopolitical challenges that could impact regional peace and the broader interests of both the U.S. and Israel.